The Pacific see-saw, measured

El Niño and La Niña reshape rainfall, heat and storm likelihoods around the world. This hub shows the current phase, where it may be heading, and what that may mean for the places you care about.

Current phaseDEMO · pending backend

Neutral — cooling

ONI −0.3 °C · Niño 3.4 region · La Niña threshold is −0.5 °C

ENSO-neutral conditions with a slight cool lean. Sample values — production ingests NOAA CPC weekly and labels them observed.

Phase probability outlookFORECAST · demo

Jul–Sep 2026

Oct–Dec 2026

Jan–Mar 2027

La NiñaNeutralEl Niño

Oceanic Niño Index — recent wintersHISTORICAL · demo values

15/16

16/17

17/18

18/19

19/20

20/21

21/22

22/23

23/24

24/25

25/26

DJF values, °C anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region · ±0.5 °C = event thresholds

What does this mean for me?

South Asia

·A cool-leaning Pacific may support a near- or above-normal monsoon.
·Flood likelihood may increase in some catchments during peak monsoon.
·Heat extremes may be slightly less likely than in El Niño years.
·Cyclone season activity in the Bay of Bengal remains near normal.

These are probability shifts, not certainties. ENSO changes likelihoods — it never guarantees any single event. Based on historical relationships in peer-reviewed climatology.

El Niño

The central-eastern tropical Pacific runs warmer than normal. Trade winds weaken. Global rainfall patterns shift — some regions flood, others dry out.

La Niña

The same ocean runs cooler than normal and trade winds strengthen. Often brings the mirror-image impacts of El Niño.

Neutral

Neither warm nor cool thresholds are met. Other climate drivers dominate regional weather.

Notable past eventsHISTORICAL

Event	Phase	Peak ONI	Notes
1982–83	El Niño	+2.2	One of the strongest events of the 20th century; global impacts.
1988–89	La Niña	−1.8	Strong La Niña; major drought in central North America.
1997–98	El Niño	+2.4	The benchmark 'super' El Niño; severe global disruption.
2010–11	La Niña	−1.6	Queensland floods; strong Atlantic hurricane season.
2015–16	El Niño	+2.6	Record-strength event; global coral bleaching.
2023–24	El Niño	+2.0	Strong event contributing to record global temperatures.