The Pacific see-saw, measured
El Niño and La Niña reshape rainfall, heat and storm likelihoods around the world. This hub shows the current phase, the numbers behind it, and what that may mean for the places you care about.
El Niño conditions, very strong. Latest ONI (JAS 2026) is +2.16 °C in the Niño 3.4 region. Observed — NOAA CPC.
No forecast is wired yet, so Meridian shows none. Read the CPC discussion directly.
CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion ↗- CPC ONI · 3-month mean · ERSSTv5 · OBSERVED
- +2.16 °CJAS 2026 · threshold ±0.5
- CPC RONI · relative ONI · OBSERVED
- +1.69 °CJAS 2026 · tropics-relative
- Daily Niño 3.4 · OISST v2.1 · 1971–2000 baseline · OBSERVED
- +3.53 °C2026-10-31T12:00:00Z · SST 30.1 °C
Typical tendencies in El Niño years — general climatology, not a forecast for this season.
- ·A weaker Indian summer monsoon is more likely, with a higher chance of below-normal rainfall in many areas.
- ·Drought and heat stress tend to be more likely across parts of the subcontinent during the monsoon.
- ·Intense local downpours can still cause floods, so a weak seasonal total does not rule them out.
- ·The October–December rains in southern India and Sri Lanka often tend to be wetter.
- ·Globally, El Niño tends to push the average temperature up, and the warming often peaks a few months after the event does.
These are probability shifts, not certainties. ENSO changes likelihoods — it never guarantees any single event. Based on historical relationships in peer-reviewed climatology.
The central-eastern tropical Pacific runs warmer than normal. Trade winds weaken. Global rainfall patterns shift — some regions flood, others dry out.
The same ocean runs cooler than normal and trade winds strengthen. Often brings the mirror-image impacts of El Niño.
Neither warm nor cool thresholds are met. Other climate drivers dominate regional weather.
| Event | Phase | Peak ONI | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1982–83 | El Niño | +2.2 | One of the strongest events of the 20th century; global impacts. |
| 1988–89 | La Niña | −1.8 | Strong La Niña; major drought in central North America. |
| 1997–98 | El Niño | +2.4 | The benchmark 'super' El Niño; severe global disruption. |
| 2010–11 | La Niña | −1.6 | Queensland floods; strong Atlantic hurricane season. |
| 2015–16 | El Niño | +2.6 | Record-strength event; global coral bleaching. |
| 2023–24 | El Niño | +2.0 | Strong event contributing to record global temperatures. |
Data: NOAA CPC (ONI, RONI) · NOAA OISST (daily Niño 3.4). Phase word uses the ONI ±0.5 °C rule on the latest season.